Valero Energy Stock Volatility
| VLO Stock | USD 203.92 4.42 2.22% |
Valero Energy appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Valero Energy owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.1, which indicates the firm had a 0.1 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Valero Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Valero Energy's Semi Deviation of 1.48, coefficient of variation of 850.66, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0997 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Sharpe Ratio = 0.1031
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Based on monthly moving average Valero Energy is performing at about 8% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Valero Energy by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to Valero Energy's volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Valero Energy Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Valero daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Valero's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Valero Energy volatility.
ESG Sustainability
While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, Valero Energy's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Valero Energy's managers and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Valero Energy can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Valero Energy at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Valero stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Valero Energy's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns. Main indicators related to Valero Energy's market risk premium analysis include:
Beta 0.42 | Alpha 0.22 | Risk 2.31 | Sharpe Ratio 0.1 | Expected Return 0.24 |
Moving together with Valero Stock
| 0.72 | DINO | HF Sinclair Corp Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | SGJH | Sinopec Shanghai Pet | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | SECVY | Seche Environnement | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | ENS | Enersys | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | RILYL | B Riley Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | OBYCF | Obayashi | PairCorr |
Moving against Valero Stock
| 0.54 | IVVD | Invivyd | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | NVNIW | Nvni Group Limited | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | FCAP | First Capital | PairCorr |
| 0.34 | BROGF | BROGF | PairCorr |
Valero Energy Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Valero Energy's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Valero stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Valero stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Valero Energy's beta of 0.42 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Valero Energy stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Valero Energy has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.24 and kurtosis of 3.41. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Valero Energy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Valero Energy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Valero Energy Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Valero Energy correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Valero Energy Volatility and Downside Risk
Valero standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Using Valero Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Valero Energy grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Valero Energy at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Valero Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Valero Energy's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Valero Energy will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Valero Energy's PUT expiring on 2026-03-27
Profit |
| Valero Energy Price At Expiration |
Current Valero Energy Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | VLO260327P00125000 | -0.04872 | 0.001504 | 1 | 2026-03-27 | 0.0 - 1.55 | 0.0 | View |
Put | VLO260327P00165000 | -0.090507 | 0.004688 | 1 | 2026-03-27 | 0.0 - 1.57 | 0.0 | View |
Put | VLO260327P00170000 | -0.109952 | 0.005753 | 1 | 2026-03-27 | 0.0 - 1.86 | 0.0 | View |
Put | VLO260327P00175000 | -0.101804 | 0.006806 | 36 | 2026-03-27 | 0.91 - 1.76 | 0.0 | View |
Put | VLO260327P00180000 | -0.142181 | 0.008789 | 2 | 2026-03-27 | 1.65 - 2.29 | 0.0 | View |
Put | VLO260327P00185000 | -0.192422 | 0.010935 | 13 | 2026-03-27 | 2.34 - 3.3 | 0.0 | View |
Put | VLO260327P00195000 | -0.326705 | 0.014855 | 3 | 2026-03-27 | 5.2 - 5.9 | 0.0 | View |
Valero Energy Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Valero Energy stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Valero Energy's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Valero Energy's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Valero Energy's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Valero Energy's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Valero Energy's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Valero Energy's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Valero Energy's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Valero Energy Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Valero Energy Projected Return Density Against Market
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Valero Energy has a beta of 0.4237 . This entails as returns on the market go up, Valero Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Valero Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Valero Energy or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Valero Energy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Valero stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Predicted Return Density |
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What Drives a Valero Energy Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract investor attention to the company. This positive attention may impact the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Valero Energy Stock Risk Measures
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Valero Energy is 970.33. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 5.35 and standard deviation of 2.31. The mean deviation of Valero Energy is currently at 1.63. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.79
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Valero Energy Stock Return Volatility
Valero Energy historical daily return volatility represents how much of Valero Energy stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm has volatility of 2.3133% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7721% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
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Related Correlations Analysis
Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
There is a big difference between Valero Stock performing well and Valero Energy Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze Valero Energy's multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | 1.42 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.43 | 1.55 | 4.11 | 9.69 | |||
| MPC | 1.43 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 1.60 | 3.66 | 8.52 | |||
| TRP | 0.96 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 3.08 | 0.65 | 2.24 | 5.93 | |||
| MPLX | 0.82 | 0.18 | 0.07 | (3.59) | 0.85 | 1.74 | 4.74 | |||
| E | 1.03 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 2.04 | 6.47 | |||
| KMI | 1.04 | 0.30 | 0.16 | (5.56) | 1.00 | 2.24 | 6.33 | |||
| SLB | 1.70 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 1.43 | 4.46 | 12.54 | |||
| ET | 0.81 | 0.18 | 0.09 | (1.57) | 0.67 | 1.69 | 4.31 | |||
| SU | 1.09 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 4.18 | 0.74 | 2.44 | 5.50 | |||
| EOG | 1.40 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 1.89 | 1.45 | 2.91 | 6.52 |
About Valero Energy Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Valero Energy or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Valero Energy may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Valero's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Valero Energy and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Valero Energy fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 90 M | 85.5 M | |
| Market Cap | 28.3 B | 29.8 B |
Valero Energy's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Valero Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Valero Energy's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Valero Energy's volatility to invest better
Higher Valero Energy's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Valero Energy stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Valero Energy stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Valero Energy investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Valero Energy's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Valero Energy's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Valero Energy Investment Opportunity
Valero Energy has a volatility of 2.31 and is 3.0 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 20 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Valero Energy. You can use Valero Energy to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences an unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of Valero Energy to be traded at $244.7 in 90 days.Very weak diversification
The correlation between Valero Energy and DJI is 0.51 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Valero Energy and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Valero Energy Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valero Energy's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valero Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Valero Energy stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0997 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.6166 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 850.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Valero Energy Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Valero Energy as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Valero Energy's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Valero Energy's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Valero Energy.
When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock: Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Valero Energy. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Will Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector continue expanding? Could Valero diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Valero Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.196 | Dividend Share 4.52 | Earnings Share 7.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.039 |
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Valero Energy's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.